USD/JPY Coiling Before Next Move

Daily Bars

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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FOREXAnalysis: It’s looking more or and more like a diagonal is unfolding from 90.84 in USDJPY. The diagonal lines should help with entry in the coming week(s). The line crosses about 101.36 on Thursday and increases about 13 pips per day. Remember, sometimes the market will experience a ‘throwover’ in which price exceeds the upward sloping diagonal line before reversing. Diagonal support line is at 97.86 on Thursday and increases 22 pips per day.

FOREXTrading Strategy: Will be shorting sometime in next few weeks but don’t know if the entry will be higher or lower…depends on resolution of the diagonal pattern. 99.00 is near term support.

LEVELS: 97.20 98.10 98.52 99.95 101.07 101.43

NZD/USD Longs Favored below .8435 Towards mid .8500s

Daily Bars

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

FOREXAnalysis: It is possible that an important high is in place at .8675. The current high is at the channel that defines the advance from the November 2011 low. Near term, a flat correction appears to be unfolding from the 4.15 low. The implications are for strength above .8509 before the next top.

FOREXTrading Strategy: Order to go long at .8440, stop .8350, target .8550 but will be looking for a top in 1-2 weeks.

LEVELS: .8359 .8400 .8435 .8509 .8526 .8561

AUD/USD One More Low Would Present Trade Opportunity

Daily Bars

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

FOREXAnalysis: The AUDUSD is nearing the trendline drawn off of the June 2012 and March 2013 lows. That line is at 1.0213 on Thursday and increases about 3 pips per day. The area that surrounds 1.0200 includes the reversal day close at 1.0194 and the 78.6% retracement of the rally from 1.0115 at 1.0215. Long lower wicks (close-low) suggest buying pressure.

FOREXTrading Strategy: Buying 1.0215 with a 1.0110 stop.

LEVELS: 1.0000 1.0115 1.0194-1.0215 1.0307 1.0358 1.0396

DanaTeq penetrates PH market, sets up office

TEQs (Tradable Energy Quotas) is a proposal for a national emissions and energy trading scheme that includes personal carbon trading as a central element. It is the subject of significant interest from the UK Government, and is explicitly designed to address both climate change and peak oil.

The scheme was originally known as DTQs (Domestic Tradable Quotas). This was later changed to TEQs (Tradable Energy Quotas) due to confusion caused by the word “domestic” in the original title. While intended to distinguish the scheme from international trading schemes, it was sometimes misinterpreted to imply that the scheme covered only household emissions, rather than the entire national economy.^[1]

History[link]

Early history[link]

David Fleming first published on the TEQs model in June 1996 (although at this time he used the name DTQs – Domestic Tradable Quotas). This was followed by discussion papers, a journal publication and a series of presentations to Governmental organisations and NGOs. Working with Richard Starkey of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Fleming was eventually invited to give evidence to the House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, and this was followed by a Ten Minute Rule Bill, presented to Parliament by Colin Challen MP on July 7, 2004.^[2][3]

Research interest[link]

After its mention in the UK Parliament, TEQs became widely studied by research centres internationally, including the Environmental Change Institute (Oxford University), the Natural Environment Research Council, the Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures Commerce and the Institute for Public Policy Research, among others. A number of academic papers were produced, followed by Mayer Hillman‘s book How We Can Save The Planet.^[4]

Initial Government interest[link]

In 2005, David Fleming published the first edition of his popular guide to TEQs, Energy and the Common Purpose (now in its third edition). TEQs were by that time widely discussed in books, academia and the research world, and in 2006 David Miliband, then Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, commissioned the Centre for Sustainable Energy to produce a scoping study into the idea. This had the headline finding that “a personal carbon allowance and trading system has the potential to achieve emissions savings in a fairer way than carbon taxes, and would reward people for leading low-carbon lifestyles”^[5]. Accordingly, a full Government pre-feasibility study into the scheme was launched, and four reports were published in May 2008.^[6]

UK Department of Energy and Climate Change pre-feasibility study[link]

The headline finding of the pre-feasibility study was that “personal carbon trading has potential to engage individuals in taking action to combat climate change, but is essentially ahead of its time and expected costs for implementation are high”^[7]. Following this, the Government announced that it “remains interested in the concept of personal carbon trading and, although it will not be continuing its research programme at this stage, it will continue to monitor the wealth of research focusing on this area and may introduce personal carbon trading if the value of carbon savings and cost implications change”.^[8]

This finding was challenged by numerous research groups, including the UK Parliament’s own Environmental Audit Select Committee, who stated that “although we commend the Government for its intention to maintain engagement in academic work on the topic, we urge it to undertake a stronger role, leading and shaping debate and coordinating research”^[9]. In January 2011, the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil produced a report, jointly authored by David Fleming and Shaun Chamberlin, pulling together the various critiques and urging the Government to move forward towards implementation of TEQs.^[10]

Overview of how the scheme would work[link]

1. TEQs (Tradable Energy Quotas) is an electronic energy rationing system designed to be implemented at the national scale.

2. There are two reasons why such a scheme may be needed:

Climate change: to guarantee achieving national carbon reduction targets.

Energy supply: to maintain a fair distribution of fuel and electricity during shortages.

3. TEQs (pronounced “tex”) are measured in units.

4. Every adult is given an equal free Entitlement of TEQs units each week. Other energy users (Government, industry etc.) bid for their units at a weekly Tender, or auction.

5. If you use less than your Entitlement of units, you can sell your surplus. If you need more, you can buy them. All trading takes place at a single national price, which will rise and fall in line with demand. Buying and selling would be as easy as topping up an Oyster card or mobile phone.

6. All fuels (and electricity) carry a “carbon rating” in units; one unit represents one kilogram of carbon dioxide – or the equivalent in other greenhouse gases – released in the fuel’s production and use.

7. When you buy energy, such as petrol for your car or electricity for your household, units corresponding to the amount of energy you have bought are deducted from your TEQs account, in addition to your money payment. TEQs transactions are generally automatic, using credit-card or (more usually) direct-debit technology.

8. The total number of units available in the country is set out in the TEQs Budget. The size of the Budget goes down year-by-year – step-by-step, like a staircase.

9. The Budget is set by the Committee on Climate Change, which is independent of the Government. The Government is itself bound by the TEQs scheme; its role is to support the country in thriving on the available carbon/energy.

10. Since the national TEQs price is determined by national demand, it is transparently in everyone’s interest to help each other to reduce their energy demand, and to work together, encouraging a national sense of common purpose. ^[11]

Influence on other policies[link]

TEQs were the inspiration behind other proposed policy instruments designed to deal with climate change, such as PCAs (Personal Carbon Allowances) and FEASTA‘s Cap and Share proposal.

References[link]

1. ^ FAQs on TEQs website
2. ^ All Party Parliamentary report into TEQs, p.39
3. ^ Domestic Tradable Quotas (Climate Change) Bill – a Private Members Bill submitted to the UK Parliament in 2004
4. ^ All Party Parliamentary report into TEQs, p.39
5. ^ The Centre for Sustainable Energy’s Scoping Study for DEFRA
6. ^ UK Government pre-feasibility study into TEQs
7. ^ UK Government pre-feasibility study into TEQs
8. ^ All Party Parliamentary report into TEQs, p.41
9. ^ House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee response to Government pre-feasibility study into TEQs
10. ^ All Party Parliamentary report into TEQs
11. ^ ‘Copied from www.teqs.net with permission granted’

External links[link]

• TEQs – official website
• The All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil’s January 2011 report into TEQs, downloadable as a PDF.
• David Fleming‘s popular guide to TEQs, Energy and the Common Purpose (3rd edition), downloadable as a PDF.
• The Centre for Sustainable Energy’s Scoping Study for DEFRA (2006).
• The UK Government’s pre-feasibility study into TEQs (May 2008).
• Critiques of the Government pre-feasibility study, from The Lean Economy Connection, the Centre for Sustainable Energy and the House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee.
• BBC Radio 4 – 12 minute discussion of peak oil and TEQs.
• Information on Southern Cross University’s TEQs trial on Norfolk Island, due to start in 2011.

Rosie Pope helps navigate exotic baby gear – Quincy Herald

By LEANNE ITALIE
Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) – Amid the purveyors of belly casts and placenta pills, sonogram art and cord banks at a recent baby gear extravaganza stood a smiling Rosie Pope, pregnancy advice guru, mommy concierge to the rich and, with any luck, the Martha Stewart of maternity.

“There’s Rachael Ray for cooking and Rachel Zoe for style, but who in motherhood? That’s my dream,” said the affable mom of 3 as she signed copies of her pregnancy guide, “Mommy IQ,” showed off her maternity clothing line and chatted up fans Saturday at the New York Baby Show.

Making sense of maternity and baby gear these days isn’t easy, so Pope may just get her shot. More than a few moms-to-be were befuddled as they walked the crowded show floor, some with exhausted husbands in tow, at a cavernous pier just off the West Side Highway.

There’s the “Tortle,” for example. It’s an infant hat with a soft wedge built in to battle flat head syndrome. And there’s Clean Bee Baby, an eco-friendly cleaning service for strollers and car seats.

The sellers of the Woolino were there. It’s a four-season wearable sleep bag for baby in Australian merino wool that promises to regulate body temperature, wick away moisture and last until age 2 in place of those dangerous things called blankets.

There were also numerous reinventions of the wearable baby carrier, bright and cheery seats and rides of all kinds, including one that looks like an actual car, and all-natural everything, from squeezable baby fruit to Kinder by Nature herbal wipes, loaded with certified organic aloe vera, tea tree and ylang ylang extracts.

A couple of doulas turned up with a pink Mini Cooper, extolling such services as “placenta encapsulation.” It involves dehydrating one’s placenta, turning it into a powder and putting it inside capsules for ingestion as a postpartum supplement. Which is not to be confused with a reinvention of prenatal vitamins as a powder you can sprinkle on food or mix with a liquid, or with services that will store umbilical cord blood for its stem cells soon after birth.

In addition to a little trend-spotting (highlighter orange is in and the nursery animal of the moment is the hedgehog), Pope offered her view on the explosion of gear for mom, dad and baby.

“There’s so much we do not need,” she said. “What we do need is a safe place for the baby to sleep. We do need a safe car seat. We do need a stroller system that the car seat can snap into. What we do need is SOME clothes. What we don’t need is shoes and hair accessories and wipe warmers and bottle warmers and all of this sort of extra stuff that really is just adding complication to what you’re doing rather than making your life easier.”

Like gear, maternity clothes have come a long way, as have some famous expectant moms, she said.

Of the very pregnant Kim Kardashian’s criticized floral Met Gala gown by Riccardo Tisci for Givenchy, Pope offers:

“I think that maybe she’s a PR genius since that caused her a lot of attention, but really what I always tell my clients is stay true to your sense of style. Kim was very sensuous and her clothing was generally very tight and you could see her curves. But an upholstered turtleneck gown with matching gloves is really hard for anybody to pull off. She is a beautiful pregnant woman, though.”

And the other high-profile mom-to-be, the former Kate Middleton?

“She is keeping to her sense of style, so very understated, very demure and classic and tailored. And what she’s really showing, which I love, is that you don’t have to just wear stretchy clothes when you’re pregnant.”

In addition to sellers of wearable baby carriers and a foundation looking for donations to fund kiddie yoga lessons for the underprivileged, the makers of modesty covers for nursing women were on hand at the show sponsored by New York Family magazine.

Pope said she used one called the Hooter Hider but made clear she casts no judgments on breast-feeding versus bottle feeding. She nursed her first, now 4, for about six months but said “it didn’t work” for her second. When her third came along she decided as a busy working mom on a combination of pumping and formula.

“There’s a lot of pressure to breast-feed and I think if you can do it, it’s a wonderful thing, but it doesn’t work for everybody,” Pope said.

The star of Bravo’s “Pregnant in Heels” reality series takes a similar approach to many maternity issues in her book, out last October with medical-related advice by 1 of New York City’s foremost obstetrician-gynecologists, Amos Grunebaum, who was Pope’s doctor as she navigated infertility treatment.

“So many of the books I find to be quite heavy and quite hard to figure out whether they’re saying yes or no. It’s always in the middle, the advice. I wanted to know what is right and what is wrong and then what is up to me. That’s really important.”

She professes zero tolerance for caffeine and alcohol during pregnancy, “but then I am much more open-minded when it comes to breast-feeding and when it comes to attachment parenting or sleeping. I really believe every family is very, very different and what’s right for one person is not right for another.”

In decades past, maternity advice was “this way or the highway,” but so many options and so much readily available information today is a “blessing and a curse,” Pope acknowledged. “If you can navigate your way through that you can really find a path that is wonderful for you.”

Agnieszka Golasik of Brooklyn, an artist by way of Poland, wasn’t looking to help expectant moms navigate so much as decorate. She’ll turn your sonogram pregnancy image into a psychedelic portrait of your fetus through her company Your Baby to Be, at a starting price of $250.

“I was experimenting with these images for a series of small monotypes when I found out I was pregnant,” Golasik said at the booth she shared with co-founder Margaret Blat. “This is a special time and new way to remember your baby.”

The folks over at Cast in Time were of similar minds. They’ll take a plaster cast of your naked and pregnant silhouette, from pubic bone to breasts, decorate it and frame it for hanging, at a minimum of $495.

Said the founder, who goes by Bindia: “Pregnant women are beautiful.”

Follow Leanne Italie on Twitter at http://twitter.com/litalie

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Merger and Acquisition Trends in the Global Airline Industry

NEW YORK, May 20, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:

Merger and Acquisition Trends in the Global Airline Industry 

http://www.reportlinker.com/p01187492/Merger-and-Acquisition-Trends-in-the-Global-Airline-Industry .html#utm_source=prnewswireutm_medium=prutm_campaign=Airline

A Shift in Focus from Market Share to Profitability

The global airline industry is currently characterized by slack passenger demand, soaring fuel prices, and a slowdown in the global economy (the industry is cyclical, and its performance is closely linked to the GDP growth). Instead of engaging in competition and turf wars, currently, companies in the industry are focusing on improving profitability, especially in markets where they already have a strong presence. Mergers, joint ventures, and other strategic alliances are slowly becoming the norm for airline industry participants who are focusing on cost cutting and excess capacity reduction in order to combat the rising fuel prices and recession.

Executive Summary

Following the slowdown in the global economy, primarily caused by the Eurozone crisis, strategic and financial investors have become cautious and risk-averse about portfolio investments. This has negatively impacted merger and acquisition (MA) activity in terms of deal value. Deal values declined in 2011 to $ billion from $ billion in 2010, a sharp percent.
The average value of transactions (excluding transactions of values greater than $1.00 billion) has declined by percent from $ million in 2007 to $ million in 2012.
Soaring fuel prices, declining passenger demand, and the economic crisis have led to excess capacity for airline carriers.
Instead of engaging in competition and turf wars, companies in the industry are currently focusing on improving profitability, especially in markets where they already have strong presence.
Mergers, joint ventures, and other strategic alliances are slowly becoming the norm for airline industry participants, who are focusing on cost cutting and excess capacity reduction in order to combat rising fuel prices and recession.

Research Objective

This research service analyzes the MA transactions (announced, closed, or effective) in the global airline industry from January 2007 to December 11, 2012. Deals are analyzed by segments and geographies. Cross-border deals are also analyzed. The outlook for MA is also provided.

Geographic Scope

Global Study

Analysis Includes

• Across segments
• Across geographies
• Valuation multiples
• Stock price variations
• Percentage of stake acquired
• Type of buyers

Study Period

January 2007 to December 11, 2012

Transactions Analyzed

446 transactions

Who Will Benefit?

• Companies operating in the global airline industry
• Private equity
• Venture capital investors
• Fund managers
• Retail investors
• Sovereign wealth funds
• Hedge funds
• Insurance funds and other members in the investing community

Sources

• Frost Sullivan in-house research expertise
• Established business and financial databases, such as Capital IQ
• Company annual reports
• Reports of associations such as IATA*
• Published news
• Press releases
Note: Financial data used for analysis are as of December 11, 2012

Sectors Covered in the Study

Airline Industry: Sectors Covered in the Study, Global, 2007–2012

Commercial Airlines
Establishments primarily engaged in operating airplanes for commercial use, such as Boeing.

Private or Business Aircraft Services
Establishments primarily engaged in providing aircrafts/charters to fly from place to place on customers’ own time schedules for personal or business use.

Helicopter Transportation Services
Establishments primarily engaged in providing non-scheduled helicopter transportation services.

Rescue and Safety Aircraft Services
Establishments primarily engaged in providing aircraft for rescue or emergency purposes.

Key Terms Used in the Study

MA: Merger and acquisition
EBIT: Earnings before interest and taxes
EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
EBITDAR: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and rent
EV: Enterprise value
BV: Book Value
FFP: Frequent Flyer Program

Airline Industry—Need for Consolidation

The airline industry is currently characterized by slack passenger demand, soaring fuel prices, and a slowdown in the global economy. The industry is cyclical and its performance is closely linked to the gross domestic product (GDP). Given this scenario, MA activity is expected to gain momentum in the airline industry. Industry participants historically have expanded capacities and network unprofitably as well as engaged in price wars in an effort to gain market share.

Instead of engaging in competition and turf wars, companies in the industry are currently focusing on improving their profitability, especially in markets where they already have strong presence. Mergers, joint ventures, and other strategic alliances are slowly becoming the norm for airline industry participants who are focusing on cost cutting and excess capacity reduction in order to combat rising fuel prices and recession.

The United States witnessed several key mergers in the past five years. The most significant impact of this consolidation wave is the increase in load factor. Historically, the load factor for carriers in the region ranged between X and X percent. After the consolidation, the average load factor was over X percent. The direct implication of this increase has been more passengers per flight.

Evolution of the Airline Industry after Deregulation

The airline industry in the United States is much ahead of other regions. Understanding the evolution of the industry after deregulation provides a base for analyzing the MA climate.

Pre-Deregulation
• The airline industry in the United States was heavily monitored by the government before the deregulation. Government had control over the fares, routes, and entry of new market participants.

Late 1970s
• The Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 resulted in the shift from a regulatory oversight environment to a free market environment.
• Airlines were allowed to set fares and operate new routes; deregulation also paved the way for new market participants.
• The airlines that emerged out of deregulation are referred to as legacy carriers.

1980s and 1990s
• Though there were around a dozen airlines that emerged from deregulation, only a few survived through the 1980s and 1990s. This period also saw airlines operating new routes, not because there was a need for it, but because they were able to do so.
• Despite the intense competition, the carriers did not merge. They either went bankrupt or liquidated or emerged with new cost structures. Eastern Airlines and Pam Am were some notable causalities in this period.
• This period also saw the emergence of low-cost carriers such as Southwest Airlines entering the market. The business model of these carriers (bulk transfer of passengers from point to point rather than the hub-and-spoke model) resulted in cheaper fares and faster travel for passengers.

2000s
• Since 2000, the industry saw MA activity picking up momentum. Instead of going bankrupt, carriers started to be acquired by stronger ones. The deal between American Airlines and TWA in 2001 was one of the first significant acquisitions in the region. This was followed by America West acquiring US Airways in 2005. The late 2000s saw major deals such as the Delta-Northwest deal, Continental Airlines-United Airlines deal, and Southwest Airlines-AirTran deal.
• The late 1990s and early 2000s also saw the emergence of airline alliances. This period saw carriers entering code-sharing agreements with other airlines.

Code-sharing Agreements and Airline Alliances

Code sharing is an aviation business agreement wherein more than two airlines share the same flight. In other words, code sharing is an inter-airline partnership in which one carrier issues tickets from another carrier as though the tickets were its own. The marketing carrier places its code on an operating carrier’s flights and markets its services (codes are generally two-character airline identifiers in accordance with IATA). Code sharing has several advantages—it allows carriers to have greater access to cities without the need to offer additional flights, allows carriers to fly passengers in routes they do not operate in, and simplifies the booking process by allowing single booking across multiple planes. A majority of passengers, however, do not support code sharing. This is because they book a ticket through one carrier and have to travel through another.

Airline alliances were formed to enhance the cooperation among industry participants in the global aviation industry. The level of cooperation is largely dependent on the specific alliance, and these alliances typically are formed with member-carriers from different regions. Many airline alliances are an extension of code-sharing networks. In the civil aviation side, there are three main alliances; namely Star Alliance, oneworld, and SkyTeam. Alliances among cargo airlines include SkyTeam Cargo, WOW Alliance, and ANA/UPS Alliance.

The benefits Of airline alliances include the following:
• Expansion in the network through code sharing among member carriers
• Cost savings through sharing of maintenance facilities, sales offices, and operational staff
• Lower prices for passengers (as a result of lower operating costs), flexibility in terms of availability of different carriers and departure/arrival times, and access to a wide variety of lounges

Potential disadvantages of airline alliances for passengers are higher fares in routes where competition is removed.

Compared to mergers or acquisitions, it is much easier for airline carriers to collaborate with other carriers through code-sharing networks and airline alliances. The costs involved, time taken, and the processes (and rigor) to be followed to enter into an alliance are less than mergers. However, the returns that can be expected out of entering into an alliance are less than can be realized through a merger or acquisition. Airline alliances are also referred to as poor man’s mergers.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary 3
Research Objective and Scope 5
Merger and Acquisition Trends 11
Analysis by Type of Buyer 31
Analysis of Cross-border Deals 34
Analysis by Valuation Multiples 39
Analysis by Other Key Metrics 43
Top Deals, Transaction Advisors, and Companies Looking for Investments or Buyers 47
Conclusions 54
The Frost Sullivan Story 61

To order this report:
Airline Industry: Merger and Acquisition Trends in the Global Airline Industry 

__________________________
Contact Clare: clare@reportlinker.com
US:(339) 368 6001
Intl:+1 339 368 6001

Crude Dips and Rips; Focus Still on 90

(MENAFN – DailyFX)

Daily Bars

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

Commodity Analysis: Wrote last week that “just 3 weeks after spiking below the trendline that extends off of the 2008 and 2012 lows, crude has rallied into the trendline that extends off of the highs since September 2012. What happens this week will probably have a lot to say regarding the next move. Tuesday’s inside day presents an opportunity to sell weakness on a drop below Monday’s low with a stop above Monday’s high.” The drop below 94.84 turns me bearish.

Commodity Trading Strategy: The drop below 94.84 turns me bearish against 97.15, targets 90.10 and open.

LEVELS: 90.09 91.63 92.17 94.46 95.20 9

USD/CHF Challenges Corrective Channel Line; Support Surrounds .9600

(MENAFN – DailyFX)

DailyBars

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

FOREXAnalysis: An inverse head and shoulders pattern that began exactly 8 months ago (9/14/12) was confirmed Tuesday. The target from the pattern is 1.0111. In the ‘year of the breakout’, ignore such patterns at your own risk. It’s also a good sign for bulls that price was able to close above the 61.8% retracement of the decline from .9971. Channel resistance won today but look for support at the broken upward sloping channel line and neckline (both in blue).

FOREXTrading Strategy: Long, .9520 stop, target 1.0100 – will add if price re-tests neckline near .9600 and responds.

LEVELS: .9520 .9583 .9627 .9720 .9771

AUD/USD Kisses Multiyear Trendline

(MENAFN – DailyFX)

Daily Bars

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

FOREXAnalysis: No change from Tuesday: “AUDUSD near term focus is on .9800 (78.6% of rally from .9580) although the line that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 lows is at about .9858 on Wednesday. The presence of these levels increases the risk of a bounce…resistance is estimated between .9977 and parity.”

FOREXTrading Strategy: No change: “I exited the short today but the bias is still short…now against 1.0170. Looking to short again between .9977 and 1.0030. The decline may take a more choppy form from this level down to .9700.”

LEVELS: .9700 .9800 .9852 .9939 1.0003 1.0030

Daily Observations: April 22, 2013

Current Positions:

- Flat

Typical Time Frame: 1-day to 1-week

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

The new week starts with the US Dollar finding increasingly firm technical footing, despite the lack of positive data the past several weeks. The US Dollar’s resilience can be attributed to exogenous concerns elsewhere, mainy soft Chinese growth, continued dovish rhetoric out of Japan, and political tension in Cyprus and Italy. I like the US Dollar this week given the expected rebound in American economic data, in particular the 1Q’13 GDP reading due on Friday (annualized 3.1% expected from 0.4% in 4Q’12).

We might be seeing a shift in the broad fundamentals supporting the commodity currency bloc (Aussie, Kiwi, and Loonie) now that Chinese policymakers are directly talking down economic growth expectations. People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou said that “China is undergoing economic restructuring, which sometimes is not in lockstep with growth…We need to sacrifice short-term growth for the purposes of reforms and structural adjustments.” This should weigh on base metals’ prices and accordingly, dent bullish prospects in the Aussie and Kiwi.

AUDUSD

Daily: (8-EMA 21-EMA) 200-DMA = BEARISH

4H: 8-EMA 21-EMA = BEARISH

1H: 8-EMA 21-EMA = BEARISH

Position: Flat, waiting on 1H crossover for a sell signal

EURUSD

Daily: (8-EMA 21-EMA) 200-DMA = BULLISH

4H: 8-EMA 21-EMA = BEARISH

1H: 8-EMA 21-EMA = BEARISH

Position: Flat

GBPUSD

Daily: (8-EMA 21-EMA) 200-DMA = NEUTRAL

4H: 8-EMA 21-EMA = BEARISH

1H: 8-EMA 21-EMA = BEARISH (close to flipping)

Position: FLAT, waiting on 1H crossover for a sell signal

USDJPY

Daily: (8-EMA 21-EMA) 200-DMA = BULLISH

4H: 8-EMA 21-EMA = BULLISH

1H: 8-EMA 21-EMA = BEARISH

Position: Flat, waiting on 1H crossover for a buy signal

As always, any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the DailyFX Real Time News feed, or by following me on Stocktwits/Twitter @CVecchioFX.

I also host a weekly Live Trading QA in DailyFX Plus, on Tuesdays at 07:15 EST / 12:15 GMT, in which I delve deeper into my positions and thought processes behind my analyses.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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